Introduction

Location of Guatemala

In Central America Guatemala is located. Guatemala is bordered by the Gulf of Honduras and the Pacific Ocean, North and West by Mexico and East by Belize, Honduras and El Salvador.

Climate and Average Weather in Guatemala

Four types of climate exist in Guatemala. The country is both connected to two oceans on the American continent. The Pacific Ocean is bordered by the west while the Gulf of Honduras is bordered with eastern Guatemala. Mainly plateaus and mountains are the core region of the country. As a result, the climate in Guatemala is quite different, although the types of the tropics dominate.

The average coastal yearly temperature is between 25° and 30° Celsius (77° and 86° F). Only 15° Celsius (52° Fahrenheit) is a lower temperature when you travel to higher places in the country. Mercury rises in winter to more than 30°C (86°F) during the summer months in significant part of the country, between 22 and 25°C (71.6°F-77°F).

In Guatemala they call the wet season winter and the dry season summer. The rainy season starts in May and lasts until October inland. At the coast it starts in May and lasts until December. The annual rainfall amounts range from 500 millimeters (30.5 inch) in the southwest to more than three thousand millimeters (183 inch) in some tropical rainforest locations and in the mountains and volcanoes.

Hurricanes and tropical storms may occur. They can come both from the Caribbean and Pacific Seas, however this opportunity is little smaller. The time of the hurricane begins in late June and runs through November. It has the most opportunity to deal with a hurricane from time to time, especially on the East Coast. When such a tropical low passes through earth, its strength reduces very rapidly.

Covid 19 status in Gautemala

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a SARS-CoV-2 virus infectious disease. Most people with COVID-19 suffer from mild to moderate symptoms and recover without particular therapy. However, some are seriously unwell and need medical assistance.

When you cough, sneeze, talk, sing, or breathe, the virus can spread through your mouth or nose in minute liquid particles. The particles range can be from bigger inhalation droplets to tiny aerosols. If you are close to someone with COVID-19, or contact a polluted surface then your eyes, mouth or nose may get infected by breathing the virus. Indoors and in crowded environments, this virus spreads more easily.

221 Countries and Territories around the world have reported a total of 232,090,369 confirmed cases of the coronavirus COVID-19 that originated from Wuhan, China, and a death toll of 4,754,042 deaths.

After the first verified case in mid-March, Guatemala’s government quickly shut down the entire country. Despite some government assistance, however, with 75% of workers employed informally, many were forced to choose between losing pay and safeguarding their health. 11 By mid-July, there had been over 1000 deaths.

The COVID-19 rate was considerably larger in Guatemala than in other Central American countries. According to the Ministry Of health, 111.262 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported to have died in Guatemala from November 2020, 3,821. In order to minimize the virus spread, a ‘state of calamity’ was declared on 5 March and severe locking and curfew and travel restrictions have been enforced.

Vaccination Status

At least 6,243,535 COVID vaccine doses has been provided thus far in Guatemala. If every person requires two doses, around 18.8% of the country’s population will be sufficient to get vaccinated.

Exploratory data analysis

Assumptions :

  • Negative values of this dataset have been considered as missing values.

  • Since there are 47 rows with NA’s, all the missing values of the dataset were replaced with the recent values using the last one carried forward method(locf) in the same column.

  • Outliers were removed before doing the calculations.

## Total cases =  524355
## Total recovered cases=  430403
## Recovered rate in Guatemala =  82.08237
## Total death cases =  13021
## Death rate in Guatemala =  2.483241
## Total active cases =  80931
## Active cases rate in Guatemala =  15.43439

Tail part of the total dataset with active cases

Active cases in Guatemala were calculated using the cumulative sums of total cases with cumulative sums of death cases and recovered cases.

Tail part of Guatemala corona cleaned dataset
date confirmed recovered death cumulative_cases cumulative_recovered cumulative_death active
601 2021-09-13 733 2609 44 507224 417358 12776 77090
602 2021-09-14 4299 2609 41 511523 419967 12817 78739
603 2021-09-15 4230 2609 64 515753 422576 12881 80296
604 2021-09-16 1107 2609 48 516860 425185 12929 78746
605 2021-09-17 4068 2609 40 520928 427794 12969 80165
606 2021-09-18 3427 2609 52 524355 430403 13021 80931

summary statistics of the cases in Guatemala

Descriptive statistics of all types of cases with respect to the date were calculated below.

Summary Statistics of Guatemala Corona
date confirmed recovered death cumulative_cases cumulative_recovered cumulative_death active
Min. :2020-01-22 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0 Min. : 0 Min. : 0 Min. : 0
1st Qu.:2020-06-21 1st Qu.: 171.0 1st Qu.: 72.0 1st Qu.: 6.00 1st Qu.: 13145 1st Qu.: 2711 1st Qu.: 531 1st Qu.: 9903
Median :2020-11-20 Median : 632.0 Median : 548.0 Median : 18.00 Median :113524 Median : 88349 Median : 4061 Median :21866
Mean :2020-11-19 Mean : 866.7 Mean : 711.4 Mean : 21.52 Mean :138728 Mean :111802 Mean : 4494 Mean :22432
3rd Qu.:2021-04-20 3rd Qu.:1038.0 3rd Qu.: 895.0 3rd Qu.: 34.00 3rd Qu.:210467 3rd Qu.:174143 3rd Qu.: 7301 3rd Qu.:26305
Max. :2021-09-18 Max. :5826.0 Max. :6544.0 Max. :102.00 Max. :524355 Max. :430403 Max. :13021 Max. :80931

Behaviours of the all types of cases

Interpretation 1

According to this box plot we can see that,

  • Number of confirmed cases have been mostly reported under 1500 in a day.
  • Majority of Recovery cases have been reported under 1000 per day. But some recovery cases have been reported above 2000.
  • Majority of death cases have been spread around 25. Few cases have been reported above 75.
  • Number of active cases have been mostly spread around 20000.

Time series plots of case types

Interpretation 2

According to these line plots, In Guatemala,

  • Large number of covid-19 cases have been reported after 7th month in 2021. Until then, an average number of Covid-19 cases were reported in the 1st half of 2020, it was under 400 per day.

  • And then in the 2nd half of 2020 and in the 1st half of 2021 it was around 1000.

  • But gradually it has been increased upto 5000 in mid 2021 per day.

  • Few daily recovered cases have been reported in 1st half of 2020 under 200. But gradually it has been increased upto 6000 in mid 2021s.

  • Similarly, daily death cases have been also increased upto 100 in mid 2021s. But in 1st few months it was only a little number under 25 per day.

  • Also we can see that, the heights between points have been increasing gradually along the date axis in all four plots. So we can say that the variances of all case types are increasong.

Comparison of all cases in the same time series

Interpretation 3

When compairing all the types of cases with each other,

  • Total number of death cases have been reported under 11000 and it has not shown a large cumulative distribution.
  • Total number of Active cases have been reported under 80000 and it also has not shown a large difference.
  • But the recovered cases and the total cases shows a large monotonically increasing cumulative distribution rather than active cases and death cases.

Relationship between the types of cases

Interpretation 4

  • According to the scatterplot and the correlation coefficient between daily total cases and the daily recovered cases, it shows a simple linear relationship but it is not a strong linear relationship since 0.794 is not much closer to 1.

  • According to the scatterplot and the correlation coefficient between daily total cases and the daily death cases, it also shows a simple linear relationship but it is not a strong linear relationship since 0.704 is not much closer to 1.

  • According to the scatterplot and the correlation coefficient between daily total cases and the daily active cases, it also shows a simple linear relationship but it is not a strong linear relationship since 0.792 is not much closer to 1.

Comparison with the countries most affected by covid 19

According the data, USA, India, Brazil and Russia are the top 5 countries most affected by covid 19 so far.

Let’s compare the status of the virus of these countries with Guatemala.

  • USA

  • India

  • Brazil

  • Russia

Most affected countries summary
country totalcomfirmed_cases totatl_recoveries recovery_rates totatl_deaths death_rates
US 42050638 6443526 15.32325 673472 1.601574
India 33458362 32900783 98.33351 445050 1.330161
Russia 7150244 6489207 90.75504 193891 2.711670
Brazil 21230325 17771228 83.70681 590508 2.781436

Recovery cases and death cases comparison with the most affected countries

  • Guatemala = gold
  • USA = blue
  • Russia = red
  • India = purple
  • Brazil = green
Interpretation 5

According to these cumulative plots,

  • As an average, total number of recovery cases of US(blue) and Russia(red) are larger than Guatemala.

  • As an average, total number of recovery cases of Brazil and India are less than Guatemala.

Interpretation 6

According to these cumulative plots,

  • When it takes as an average, total number of death cases of US(blue), Russia(red), Brazil(green) and India(purple) are larger than Guatemala.

  • As an average, total number of death cases of guatemala is a less than the most affected countries by covid-19.

Interpretation 7

When compairing with the most affected countries by covid-19, according to these barcharts we can see that,

  • The Highest death rate is shown in Brazil and recovery rate is shown in India .

  • Even if the total number of death cases and recovery cases of US is larger than Guatemala total cases, both death rate and the recovery rate of these 2 countries are lower than Guatemala.

Comparison the affection of covid 19 with the countries closest to Guatemala

According to the data, Nicaragua, Belize, Honduras, El Salvado are the closest countries affected by covid 19 of Guatemala.

  • Honduras

  • Belize

  • Nicaragua

  • El Salvador

Closest countries summary
country totalcomfirmed_cases totatl_recoveries recovery_rates totatl_deaths death_rates
Belize 18532 14848 80.12087 390 2.104468
Nicaragua 13025 4225 32.43762 202 1.550864
Honduras 357802 135690 37.92321 9491 2.652584
El-Salvador 99885 80843 80.93608 3090 3.093558

Recovery cases and death cases comparison with the closest countries

  • Guatemala = gold
  • Belize = deep pink
  • Nicaragua = light green
  • Honduras = sky blue
  • El-Salvadore = dark orange
Interpretation 8

According to these cumulative plots,

  • When it takes as an average, total number of recovery cases of Nicaragura(light green) and Honduras(sku blue)are lower than Guatemala. They show a total of recoveries around 150,000.

  • But Belize(deep pink) and El-Salvadore(orange) show larger values of recovery cases than Guatemala.

Interpretation 9

According to these cumulative plots,

  • Even if the recovery cases of Belize(deep pink) has shown a larger value, the number of death cases are lower than Guatemala.

  • As an average, all the other closest countries show less values to the total number of deaths than Guatemala.

Interpretation 10

When compairing with the closest countries affected by covid-19, according to these barcharts we can see that,

  • The highest value of death rate is shown in El-Salvadore but Guatemala is larger than other 4 countries.

  • Even though Belize and El-Salvadore show similar avarage values of recovery rates to Guatemala, Guatemala shows the larger value.

  • Honduras and Nicaragua has the least in both death and recovery rates.

Discussion

So far Covid-19 virus has attacked to 221 countries around the world and 232,774,817 confirmed cases have been reported. Even Guatemala has to face this deadly situation. After the first verified case in mid-March, Guatemala’s government quickly shut down the entire country. Despite some government assistance, however, with 75% of workers employed informally, many were forced to choose between losing pay and safeguarding their health. 11 By mid-July, there had been over 1000 deaths.This report discuss the status about how covid-19 has been spread in the country and impact to the country. Small data analysis has been done in this report and the data were collected from the coronavirus dataset from github. Before analysing the data, the datset had to be filterd and cleaned becouse there were minus values in the dataset. Since cases cannot be negative values, they had to be cleaned. So the minus values were replaced as missing values(NA). And then those missing values were replaced with the nearest values usin locf(last one carried forward) method. After that Outliers were removed. Finally the data analysing process was done with graphs and charts. In this report boxplots, line plots, cumulative plots, barcharts and scatter plots were used to visualize the data. Results were interpreted below the graphs.

Conclusion

According to the results of analysis, Total confirmed, death and recovery cases of Guatemala have been gradually increased since the virus was starting to spread. When compairing the case types with each other, recoveries, deaths and active cases have been varied and increased linearly with the total cases.

When compairing Guatemala with the countries most affected by covid 19, Even though the total number of deaths and recoveries has shown a lower value death rate and recovery rate shows higher values compared to those countries. But Guatemala shows a lower death rate compared to the closest countries.

Concluded that, Guatemala is a country where Covid-19 is spreading rapidly and deadly.

References